Wednesday, October 8, 2008

The Good News Just Keeps Coming

Via FiveThirtyEight.com, a site that's a major source of joy to me these days:

John McCain is in deep trouble. In spite of some incremental gains that McCain has made in some of the national tracking polls, the set of state polling that follows is so strong for Obama that he continues to hit record marks in all three of our projection metrics. We are now projecting Obama to win the election 90.5 percent of the time, with an average of 346.8 electoral votes, and a 5.4-point margin in the national popular vote.
More.

5 comments:

mike said...

My degree in political science and my career as an editor have not prepared me for insights like "We are now projecting Obama to win the election 90.5 percent of the time." I'm pretty sure it's only happening once.

That said, it looks like Obama wins the electoral vote if he wins any one of the swing states; McCain would have to sweep all the swing states in order to win.

Oh, and descendants of Samuel Augustus Maverick are telling the NY Times that McCain is a totally branded Republican whereas the Maverick family is a long line of civil libertarians, including ACLU leaders who defended draft resisters. "Ms. Maverick insists that John McCain, who has voted so often with his party, 'is in no way a maverick, in uppercase or lowercase.'" HAH-hah.

Rob said...

Yeah a bit of clarification is needed there. This is from the FAQ:

...[W]e simulate the election 10,000 times for each site update in order to provide a probabilistic assessment of electoral outcomes based on a historical analysis of polling data since 1952. The simulation further accounts for the fact that similar states are likely to move together, e.g. future polling movement in states like Michigan and Ohio, or North and South Carolina, is likely to be in the same direction.

So a better way to put it would be "Our projections show a 90.5 percent likelihood of Obama winning the election."

Anyway.

I've been wondering how S.A.M. would have liked McCain laying claim to his name. Here's a link to the NY Times article. Brilliant.

An Briosca Mor said...

Two words that were never uttered during the Tuesday night debate: Maverick and Palin. Makes one wonder what the Republican challenger thinks the most relevant aspects are of his campaign, doesn't it?

And in the category of Bad News Delivered Way Ahead of Its Time, consider this eerily prescient article from January 17, 2001. What's that old saying about those not learning from history being condemned to repeat it?

On the plus side, though, I'm looking forward to watching this one unfold next season. The Pirates are here from May 18th-21st next year. Who wants first dibs on joining me in An Briosca Mor Skybox Luxury Suite then?

Rob said...

Cool! I'm in.

An Briosca Mor said...

To revisit a topic from a while back, another conservative pundit (who happens also to be the spawn of a true conservative icon) has come out against McCain, largely due to Palin. But that's not the real news, though. He also refers to Kathleen Parker as "dishy". I think that's verging on crowning her a MILF. (Although I'm not absolutely sure of that, because in general I don't speak Conservative.)